[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due several C-class flares, the largest was a C7 at 12/0328 UTC from Region 3056 (S17E48, Cao/beta). There were six other numbered regions on the disk that had sunspots. Region 3055 (S15W01, Ekc/beta) was the largest sunspot group but only produced isolated C-class flares. The next largest group, Region 3053 (N16W12, Ekc/beta) was generally inactive. Region 3057 (N17E62, Dso/beta) has a large trailing spot coming into view as it rounds the northeast limb but maintains an open grouping of intermediate spots. The other spot groups were either stable or in decay. There were numerous filaments on the disk, the largest of which were all stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 12-14 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period elevated above background levels following a minor enhancement that began on 09 Jul, but has since leveled off to less than 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 14 Jul with large sunspot groupings present. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of possible transient influences. Total field strength peaked at 17 nT and Bz was generally southward thereafter, reaching a maximum deviation of -12 nT. Wind speeds increased to near 460 km/s toward the end of the period. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 12-14 Jul due to waning transient effects and back-to-back positive polarity CH HSSs that are forecast to become geoeffective starting on 12 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected through 12 Jul with ongoing transient activity and an anticipated increase in solar winds. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 13 Jul in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active levels are likely to last into 14 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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