[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare at 14/0431 UTC from a region rotating onto the NE limb. An associated CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0436 UTC. Due to the location, the CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Regions 3055 (S17W27, Eki/beta) and 3057 (N15E39, Eho/beta) continued to grow in size. Region 3056 (S17E17, Cao/beta) was stable. Regions 3053 (N15W40, Eko/beta) decayed, losing numerous intermediate spots. Region 3052 (N15, Lo=157) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 16 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 16 Jul with large sunspot groupings present. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength peaked at 6 nT and Bz was mostly northward. Wind speeds remained elevated, ending the period around 575 km/s. The phi angle was mostly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be marginally enhanced though 16 Jul as the IMF continues to relax and wind speeds return back to background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast through 16 Jul as the solar wind environment gradually recovers in the wake of a and positive polarity CH HSS.

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