[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M2 flare at 14/2148 UTC from newly numbered Region 3058 (N15E65, Dao/Beta). Regions 3053 (N15W40, Eko/beta) and 3056 (S17E17, Cao/beta) produced numerous C-class enhancements, and Region 3055 (S17W27, Eki/beta) remained the largest group in area on the visible disk. Region 3057 (N15E39, Eho/beta) was mostly unchanged in appearance from 24 hours ago.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 17 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 17 Jul as Regions 3053 and 3055 approach the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at DSCOVR, show a slightly enhanced IMF. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT, and the Bz component was mostly in a near-neutral orientation until just before 14/1500 UTC. Bz then shifted southward, averaging near -4 nT for the remainder of the period. Wind speeds remained steady around 575 km/s through the day. The phi angle was firmly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be marginally enhanced though 17 Jul with minor disturbance anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast through 17 Jul with isolated, minor disturbances anticipated.

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