[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an impulsive M1/1b (R1-Minor) flare at 16/1539 UTC from Region 3055 (S16W70, Eho/beta). A subsequent CME was observed from the SW quadrant after the flare, first seen in LASCO/SOHO C2 imagery at 16/1724 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing. Over the past 24 hours, this region displayed some slight overall area decay.

Region 3053 (N15W84, Cao/beta) produced a long duration C3 x-ray event that peaked at 17/0352 UTC. LASCO/SOHO C2 imagery observed a narrow CME off the NW limb at 17/0236 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing. Over the past 24 hours, this region displayed some slight overall area decay.

C-class activity was also observed from Regions 3056 (S17W23, Dai/beta) and 3059 (S10E48, Dho/beta). Region 3056 indicated some area decay while Region 3059 displayed area increase. All other spotted regions were quiet and unchanged. New Region 3061 (N24W34, Hrx/alpha) emerged on the disk this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 18 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,342 pfu observed at 16/2045 UTC.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 18 Jul as Regions 3053 and 3055 approach the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR and NASA ACE spacecrafts, reflected a slightly enhanced environment. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-7 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were measured between 400-600 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be marginally enhanced though 19 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast through 19 Jul with isolated, minor disturbances anticipated.

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