[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jul 18 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Jul 18 0324 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 July 2022

Solar activity reached high levels this period due to low level, impulsive M-class flare activity. On 11 Jul Region 3056 produced an M1.3 flare at 2343 UTC. On 14 July Region 3058 was responsible for an M1.2 flare at 0431 UTC and an M2.8 flare at 2148 UTC. A CME was associated with the M1.2 from 3058, but was not directed at Earth. Finally, on 16 July Regions 3057 and 3055 produced a M1.1 at 0629 UTC and a M1.4 at 1539 UTC respectively. A relatively narrow CME was observed emerging from the SW limb shortly after the aformentioned M1.4 flare from Region 3055, but modeling determined this event to be off the Sun-Earth line. Numerous C-class activity was noted from multiple regions over the course of the period.

Additional activity included the eruption of an approximately 37 degree long filament oriented in an east to west fashion and centered near N31W05 just after 1308 UTC on 15 July. The resultant slow moving, partial halo CME was modeled and determined to have an Earth-directed component with a likely arrival of 20 July.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began the period in a slightly enhanced state with a peak of flux of 1.68 pfu occuring at 11/0305 UTC. This slight enhancement was due to C-class flare activity from the western limb that had occurred during the previous period. The 10 MeV proton flux continued a downward trend to background levels over the course of 11 July and remained there for the duration of the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects at approximately 16/1025 UTC with a peak flux of 5,270 pfu observed at 17/1830 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active with an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period. Quiet to active levels were observed 11 July with the likely arrival of trainsient- like influence. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed on 12 July at approximately 1332 UTC due to likely trainsient influence paired with the onset of a positive polairty CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels returned 13 July, with a few isolated unsettled periods occurring 15-16 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 July - 13 August 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels 18-23 July and 31 Jul-13 Aug , with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts from active, complex regions. Mostly very low to low solar activity is anticipated for 24-30 July due to recurrence.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 18-20 Jul, 24-30 Jul, and 12-13 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled 18-19 Jul under waning CH HSS effects. Primarily unsettled to active levels are expected 20-25 July, with G1 (Minor) storming being likely on 21 July, due to the arrival of the slow CME produced by a large filament eruption that occurred on 15 July and recurrent CH HSS effects. Unsettled conditions are expected 03-04 Aug and 10-12 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Primarily quiet levels are expected 26 July through 02 Aug, 05-09 Aug and 13 Aug baring new solar activity.

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