[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was a C6/Sf flare at 17/1227 UTC from Region 3058 (N13E20, Dki/beta-gamma). Some separation was observed in its leader spot and a decrease in penumbral area was noted in its trailer spot. Regions 3055 (S17W78, Ehi/beta), 3059 (S10E35, Dso/beta), 3060 (N10E26, Hax/alpha), and 3061 (N24W47, Cso/beta) were all either stable or in gradual decay. Region 3057 (N15W16, Eki/beta) and 3056 (S17W36, Dai/beta) exhibited minor development among their spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 20 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,273 pfu observed at 17/1830 UTC.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 20 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by NASAs ACE spacecraft, reflected a slightly enhanced environment. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-6 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were measured between 350-450 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be marginally enhanced though 19 Jul. Late on 20 Jul, the onset of influence from a CME may be possible late in the UTC day.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast through 19 Jul with isolated, minor disturbances anticipated. An increase to active conditions by be observed late on 20 Jul due to possible transient influence of a slow-moving CME that left the Sun on 15 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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