[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels (no M class or greater flares). The four regions in the northern hemisphere, Regions 3060 (N13E16, Hsx/alpha), 3058 (N14E10, Dri/beta), 3057 (N17W27, Eki/beta) and 3061 (N23W59, Cro/beta) all underwent decay. Region 3056 (S16W48, Dri/beta) was also in decay. Region 3059 (S10E23, Csi/beta) developed a few more trailing spots but was otherwise inactive. Region 3055 (S17W90, Cao/beta) was inactive as it continued to rotate off the disk.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 21 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 21 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at DSCOVR reflected an enhancement in the IMF likely due to transient passage. Total field peaked at 15 nT and Bz deviated southward on occasion. A maximum southward deviation of -10 nT was observed. Wind speeds increased to around 500 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain above background levels for the next three days (19-21 Jul) with ongoing activity and the arrival of a CME late on 20 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 06-09 UTC period due to an extended period of southward Bz.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods, are forecast through 19 Jul with intermittent, weak disturbances. The likelihood of active levels increases by 20 Jul with a slow-moving CME that left the Sun on 15 Jul. Activity is expected to carry over into 21 Jul, making G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming likely.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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