[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with no M class or greater flares. All of the numbered regions on the disk were stable or in decay. Region 3057 (N15W43, Eso/beta) remained the largest in total area although Region 3058 (N13W06, Dro/beta), while much smaller, was still likely the most complex magnetically. Region 3062 (S23E66, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period as it continued to rotate into view across the southeast limb. Regions 3063 (N13E20, Cso/beta) and 3064 (N11E39, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period and were inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 22 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 22 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced with continued transient/CME effects. Total field (Bt) was steady near 10 nT. Bz was sustained southward near -10 nT early in the period, before rotating mostly northward for the latter part of the period. Wind speeds decreased from near 500 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi was highly variable, rotating between positive and negative solar sectors.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain above background levels for the next three days (20-22 Jul) with ongoing CME activity and the likely arrival of another CME late on 20 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels this period due to CME influences.

Forecast: Mostly active levels are anticipated on 20 Jul with a slow-moving CME that left the Sun on 15 Jul. This activity is expected to carry over into 21 and 22 Jul, reinforced by a CH HSS (-) that arrives as early as 21 Jul. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on these days (21-22 Jul).

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