[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with no M class or greater flares. All of the numbered regions were stable or in decay. Regions 3062 (S26E54, Hsx/alpha), 3056 (S14W79, Cro/beta) and 3059 (S08W06, Cso/beta), were the only sunspot groups on the entire visible disk with mature penumbra.

A full halo CME associated with a long duration C5 flare at 21/0111 UTC was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery near 21/0148 UTC. Type II (1063 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions associated with this event were observed by RSTN observatories. Forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil modelling estimates CME arrival early on 23 Jul.

Additional events included a prominence eruption on the SE limb beginning near 20/2230 UTC, and what is likely to be a separate far-sided CME near the same time off the NE.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 23 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,920 pfu observed at 20/1620 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 23 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning transient influence, with the onset of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS late in the period. Total field strength was between 8-11 nT and its Bz component was generally oriented northward (positive) until ~21/0800 UTC. Wind speeds declined from near 410 km/s to less than 375 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain above background levels for the next three days (21-23 Jul) with CH HSS influences and anticipated CME arrival.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely for the next three days (21-23 Jul), with a CH HSS influences on 21-22 Jul, and anticipated arrival of the 20 Jul CME on 23 Jul. There is a chance for G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels being reached all three days due to the combined CME and CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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