[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. C-class activity was observed from Regions 3056 (S14, L=084), 3057 (N17W70, Cso/beta) and 3064 (N09E10, Cao/beta). The largest event of the period was an impulsive C6 x-ray event from Region 3056 at 21/2346 UTC. Slight growth was observed in Region 3057 while the other spotted regions appeared to be slowly decaying. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 24 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,333 pfu observed at 21/1730 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 24 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 22 and 24 Jul with a brief dip to normal levels on 23 Jul due to CME activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS. Total field increased from 6 nT to a maximum of 21 nT at 21/1630 UTC before decreasing to around 9-10 nT. Solar wind speed gradually increased from around 370 km/s to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component ranged from +19 to -17 nT early in the period before relaxing to +/-8 nT in the later half of the period. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain above background levels for the next three days (22-24 Jul) with CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 21 Jul CME late on 22 Jul to early on 23 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue through early 22 Jul as HSS activity continues. By late on 22 Jul to early on 23 Jul, the 21 Jul Halo CME is expected to arrive with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely and a chance for G3 (strong). Quiet to active levels are expected on 24 Jul as conditions slowly wane.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation