[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with weak C-class flares observed late in the period from Regions 3057 (N18W84, Hsx/alpha) and 3064 (N10W01, Bxo/beta). High B-class flares were observed from Regions 3058 (N12W49, Cro/beta) and 3065 (S19W05, Cro/beta). All regions were either stable or in slow decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels through 25 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 23 Jul due to CME activity. Moderate with a chance for high levels is expected on 24-25 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under CH HSS influence through 23/0229 UTC when parameters became further enhanced due to the arrival of the anticipated 21 Jul CME. Prior to 23/0229 UTC, solar wind speeds averaged about 535 km/s, total field ranged from 7-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +7/-4 nT. After 23/0229 UTC, wind speeds briefly increased to 700 km/s before settling down to an average of 675 km/s. Total field increased to 10-15 nT while the Bz component ranged between +/-12 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative through the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain above background levels for the next three days (23-25 Jul) with CH HSS influence coupled with CME effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through 23/0300 UTC under persistent negative polarity CH HSS influence. After 23/0300 UTC, the field increased to active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) due to transient effects. The Meanook geomagnetic station recorded a sudden impulse of 103 nT, beginning at 23/0259 UTC, signifying the CME shock arrival at Earth.

Forecast: On 23 Jul, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely and a chance for G3 (strong) due to CH HSS influence coupled with CME effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on 24 Jul and quiet to unsettled levels on 25 Jul as conditions slowly wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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