[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to multiple C-class flares from Regions 3057 (N17, L=060) and 3064 (N09W17, Cao/beta). A long duration C2.6 x-ray event was observed at 24/0731 UTC in the vicinity of old Region 3056 (S14, L=083). Slight spot growth was observed in Region 3060 (N12W54, Cro/beta). Little change was noticed in the remaining spotted regions.

Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption, centered near S13W33, that began at 23/1840 UTC. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the SW limb at 23/1912 UTC. At the same time was a backsided, full-halo CME observed in coronagraph imagery. Initial model output from the SW CME suggested no Earth impact, but further analysis is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels through 26 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 703 pfu at 23/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate with a chance for high levels on 24-26 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under CH HSS and CME influence. Solar wind speeds meandered between 500-550 km/s, total field ranged between 3-7 nT and the Bz component generally varied between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative orientation through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through 24 Jul due to persistent HSS and CME effects. These enhanced effects are expected to slowly diminish on 25 Jul. Nominal conditions are expected to return on 26 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 24-25 Jul with a chance for isolated active periods on 24 Jul as CME/HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet conditions are expected by 26 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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