[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 3062 (S24W62, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. Region 3068 (S15E36, Dso/beta) exhibited overall growth, gaining a few spots in its trailing group, and was responsible for several B-class level enhancements. Region 3066 (S16, Lo=285) decayed to plage, but seems to be redeveloping a single spot as of the time of this writing.

A large eruption was observed originating behind the southeastern limb in GOES SUVI 304 imagery near 30/0035 UTC. This resulted in a relatively impressive CME, which can be observed in NASA SOHO C2 imagery beginning at 30/0248 UTC. Although noteworthy, analysis indicated this CME does not have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares on 30 Jul - 01 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 30 Jul - 01 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 323-380 km/s. Total field was primarily between 4 and 8 nT, and the Bz component was -4 to +7 nT. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind are expected beginning late on 30 Jul and continuing through 31 Jul due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled levels late on 30 Jul followed by unsettled to active levels on 31 Jul with the arrival of the HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 01 Aug as HSS conditions wane.

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