[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Aug 08 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Aug 08 0224 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 August 2022

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. C-class flares were observed on 02-03 Aug, 05 Aug, and 07 Aug. The largest was a C6/1b flare at 03/1708 UTC from Region 3068 (S15, L=210, class/area=Dso/210 on 05 Aug). The region was the most complex of the 12 numbered active regions over the past week. A Type II radio sweep (Est. 163 km/s) was associated with the event but no discernable ejecta was identified in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Two other Type II radio sweeps were observed during the week, one at 05/0657 UTC and another at 07/0226 UTC. Analysis of both events did not suggest Earth-directed ejecta was present.

Other activity included an approximate 30 degree filament eruption centered near N01E25 that began after 07/1749 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if there is a CME associated with the event.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled levels over 01-03 Aug and 05 Aug appear to be associated with influence from negative polarity CH HSSs. G2 conditions were reached at the end of the day on 07 Aug and were associated with the onset of influence from a SSBC followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached as high as 14 nT at 07/2230 UTC. The Bz component was mostly oriented southward over 07 Aug, reaching as far south as -13 nT at 07/2227 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased over 07 Aug from ~420 km/s to occasionally over 600 km/s after 07/2230 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 August - 03 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low or very low during the outlook period. There are currently no significantly complex regions on the visible disk that suggest elevated potential of R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate or high levels. High levels are anticipated over 09-16 Aug and 18-14 Aug. Elevated levels are in response to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to reach moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 08 Aug and 17 Aug; active conditions are likely on 09 Aug, 18-19 Aug, 27 Aug, and 03 Sep; unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Aug, 20 Aug, and 28-30 Aug. Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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