[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low, with only B-level enhancements observed. All five of the numbered regions were stable, quiet, and otherwise unremarkable. Despite coronal dimming on GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery between Region 3071 (S21W13, Hsx/alpha) and Region 3074 (S16E20, Hsx/alpha), no CMEs were observed that would indicate an Earth-directed trajectory.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 09-11 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 1614 pfu at 08/2045 UTC, following the onset of the high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-11 Aug in association with the elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field began the period near 12 nT, but has since decreased to average near 5 nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to near -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to values over 600 km/s, and the Phi remained in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 09-11 Aug as multiple positive polarity CH HSSs connect with the Earths magnetic field lines.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to persistent HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period, on 09-10 Aug due to multiple positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions should begin to taper off by 11 Aug as the CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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