[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels, with only B-level enhancements observed. Newly numbered Region 3077 (Cro/beta) developed during the period, exhibited separation between it leader and trailer spots, yet remained mostly inactive. Another new spotted region rotated onto the SE limb. Were waiting for SOON site observations before assigning a SWPC region number. The remaining four numbered regions were quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 10-12 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 7176 pfu at 09/1505 UTC, following the onset of the high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 10-12 Aug in association with the elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected persistent positive polarity CH HSS effects. Total field averaged near 6 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +6/-7 nT, and solar wind speeds were between 550-600 km/s. Phi remained in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue on 10 Aug as the second positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. The enhanced solar wind environment should begin to subside late on 11 Aug, with further curtailment expected on 12 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Persistent CH HSS influence kept the geomagnetic field at unsettled to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period on 10 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects continue. Conditions are then expected to slowly diminish on 11-12 Aug as the CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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