[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Aug 15 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 August 2022

Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity on 08-10 Aug. Solar activity increased to low levels with C-class flare activity observed on 11-14 Aug. Regions 3076 (N15, L=61, class/area=Dao/170 on 13 Aug) and 3079 (S11, L=77, class/area=Cai/130 on 14 Aug) were responsible for the majority of C-class flare activity throughout the period. At 14/1235 UTC, a long-duration C2 flare and filament eruption were observed from Region 3076. Associated Type-II radio emissions estimated a shock velocity of 629 km/s. The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1248 UTC and is expected to impact Earth on 17 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit persisted at high levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug, and active levels on 09 and 11 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed on 10 and 12-14 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with C-class flare activity and a chance for isolated M-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15, 18-24 Aug, and 04-10 Sep. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17-18 Aug due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 14 Aug CME. Active conditions are predicted on 19-20 Aug due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 27 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagentic storms are possible on 03-04 Aug, with G1 storms possible on 05 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

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