[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. A long-duration C2 X-ray event was observed at 14/1235 UTC from Region 3076 (N16W30, Cao/beta). Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est 629 km/s). NSO GONG imagery from the El Teide site observed a semi-circle filament to the N of the region lift off beginning at about 14/1137 UTC. The approximate 10 degree long, E/W oriented filament was centered near N22W14 and was also observed lifting off in GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery at about the same time. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicated a partial-halo CME, with the bulk of the shock directed primarily off the W limb, beginning at 14/1248 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests Earth impact mid to late on 17 Aug.

A filament eruption, centered near S21W43, began after 15/0400 UTC. A long-duration X-ray event associated with the eruption reached C3 at 15/0522 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated a CME signature from the eruption but more is needed to determine if an Earth-directed component was present.

A Tenflare (130 sfu) was observed at 15/0613 UTC from activity around Region 3078 (S24E01, Dai/beta-delta). The region also produced a C1/Sf flare at 14/1918 UTC with associated Type II radio sweep (est 591 km/s). Some ejecta was associated with the event but looks to be headed well south of Sun-Earth line. The region developed penumbra through most of its spots and gained a delta classification.

Region 3079 (S11W46, Cai/beta-gamma) produced a C5/Sf at 14/1400 UTC, the largest of the period. Some minor development was observed around its trailer spots. Region 3081 (N12E24, Dhi/beta) exhibited some decay around its leader spot but minor growth around its trailer spot. The last remaining spotted region on the visible disk, Region 3074 (S16E58, Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 15-17 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15-17 Aug in response to elevated wind speeds from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 4-6 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds trended downward from a peak of ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to wane over 15-16 Aug. However, an increase in parameters is expected on 17 Aug due to the arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS coupled with possible CME influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are expected on 15-16 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects diminish. Conditions are likely to increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective on 17 Aug coupled with possible transient influence CME activity on 14 Aug.

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