[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels following an M5.0 flare (R2-Moderate radio blackout) at 16/0758 UTC from Region 3078 (S24W15, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). We are awaiting updated coronagraph imagery to conduct CME analysis at this time. This region also produced an M2/1n flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at 15/1654 UTC, as well as an earlier M1 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at 15/1436 UTC. This region also continued to be the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk.

Region 3079 (S11W58, Cao/beta) exhibited overall decay early in the period, but began to show signs of minor redevelopment near its intermediate and trailer spots later in the period. It was responsible for an M1/1f at 15/1735 UTC, as well as multiple C-class flares earlier in the period.

In addition to the 15/1500 UTC CME off to the south, there was a CME first visible in LASCO C2 at 16/0224 UTC. This CME is likely to have an Earth-directed component with an estimated arrival time of late 18 Aug- early 19 Aug. WSA/Enlil analysis is ongoing at the time of this summary.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 16-18 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 16-18 Aug in response to elevated wind speeds from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with a slight chance of crossing alert thresholds on 16-18 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. Solar wind speed decreased to ~350-375 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT while Bz was at benign values. Phi was positive.

Forecast: Enhancements are expected on 17 Aug as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. By 18 Aug, CH HSS influence is likely to be further enhanced as a pair of CMEs from 14 and 15 Aug combine with the HSS, likely elevating wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are expected on 16 Aug as the positive polarity CH HSS effects diminish. Conditions are likely to increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 17 Aug as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. By 18 Aug, the CH HSS is expected to couple with possible transient influence from CME activity from 14-15 Aug, likely increasing activity to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation