[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M1 flare at 16/2121 UTC from Region 3078 (S22W25, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), as well as a multitude of C-class flares. The region continued to be the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk. During the period, some separation was observed between the leader and trailer portions of the group while a slight increase in spot count was noted.

Region 3079 (S11W72, Cao/beta) appeared to show signs of minor leader spot decay as it approached the western limb. The region was quiet with no flare activity noted. Region 3081 (N11W02, Cao/beta) showed signs of trailer spot decay as it lost many of its intermediate and trailer spots, and was inactive throughout the period. New Region 3082 (N27E42, Dao/beta) developed in the NE, grew rapidly and produced a few C-class flares. New Region 3083 (S24W38, Dao/beta) developed fairly quickly, but was mostly quiet and inactive. The remaining regions exhibited little to no change and were inactive throughout the period.

At this time, no new CMEs were detected from available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 17-19 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,039 pfu observed at 16/2305 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17 Aug in response to elevated wind speeds from a geoeffective CH HSS. By 18 Aug, levels are expected to drop to near background values as the CME(s) move past the GOES-16 satellite and redistribute the particles. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with a slight chance of crossing alert thresholds on 17-19 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at near nominal levels through about 17/0213 UTC with solar wind speeds averaging near 375 km/s, total field averaging around 4 nT and Bz at neutral levels. Phi was positive until after 16/1200 UTC when it began to oscillate between sectors, landing in a mostly negative orientation after 16/1600 UTC.

After 17/0213 UTC, wind parameters indicated a noticeable increase with a sudden impulse observed at 17/0214 UTC. Total field values increased to 16 nT, the Bz component was variable at +12 to -10 nT, density increased to 16 ppcc and wind speed increased to near 525 km/s.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected on 17 Aug as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. By 18 Aug, CH HSS influence is likely to be further enhanced as a pair of CMEs from 14 and 15 Aug combine with the HSS, likely elevating wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s. Additional disruptions are likely on 19 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the arrival of the 16 Aug CME that was associated with the M5 flare (R3-Strong radio blackout).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sudden impulse of 23 nT was recorded at HAD at 17/0303 UTC.

Forecast: An increase to active levels is expected, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely on 17 Aug as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. By early on 18 Aug, the CH HSS is expected to couple with the anticipated arrival of the 14-15 Aug CMEs, likely increasing activity to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions will likely persist into 19 Aug as additional CMEs could impact Earth.

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