[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M2 flare at 17/1345 UTC followed quickly by an M1 flare, both from Region 3078 (S24W42, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). The region also produced an impulsive M1 flare at 18/1009 UTC and a M1 at 18/1055 UTC with Type II (749 km/s S.V.) and Type IV radio sweeps. The region continued to be the most active and magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk producing numerous C-class flares as well as the M-class activity. Evolution of this region continued during the period as the leader and trailer portions of the group separated further, with an additional delta area developing in the northern half.

Region 3079 (S06, L=063) decayed to plage as it made its way around the western limb, but managed to produce a C3 flare at 17/2333 UTC. Region 3081 (N11W15, Cao/beta) also exhibited decay, mainly in its trailer spots, but produced a C4/Sf at 18/0522 UTC. Region 3082 (N23E29, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit growth and elongation as it made its way further onto the visible disk. It was responsible for several C-class flares during the period. Region 3083 (S24W50, Dao/beta) showed little change and was generally quiet.

Two CMEs were observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning around 17/1430 UTC. These CMEs were associated with the M2 and M1 flares, mentioned earlier from Region 3078. Although there were two separate CMEs, the combined shock appeared to have a full halo presentation in LASCO coronagraph imagery. Analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a possible Earth-directed component with impact late on 19 Aug.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 18-20 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,605 pfu observed at 17/1645 UTC. Electron levels decayed to normal to moderate after about 17/1915 UTC due to redistribution. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to drop to near background values as the CME(s) move past the GOES-16 satellite and redistribute the particles. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with a slight chance of crossing alert thresholds on 18-20 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS coupled with arrival of at least one of the anticipated CMEs. Total field values increased to 16 nT, the Bz component was variable at +18 to -17 nT, density increased to 22 ppcc and wind speed increased to near 600 km/s. The solar wind environment remained enhanced throughout the period, all indications of a CME arrival at Earth. Phi was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect persistent, negative polarity CH HSS and CME influences on 18 Aug, with the anticipated arrival of the 14-15 Aug CMEs. Additional disruptions are likely on 19 and 20 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the arrival of the 16 Aug CME that was associated with the M5 flare, and the 19 Aug CME associated with the M2 and M1 flares.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels before eventually reaching G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels.

Forecast: Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with continuing effects from the 14-15 Aug CMEs, are expected to keep the geomagnetic field at G1-G2 (Minor-Major) storm levels on 18 Aug. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 18 Aug as additional CMEs are forecast to arrive at Earth. On 19 Aug, G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions will likely persist as the 16 and 17 Aug CMEs could impact Earth. On 20 Aug, active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions will likely persist as CME activity continues.

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