[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3078 (S24W55, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced the majority of X-ray activity, the largest of which was an M1/Sn flare at 19/0444 UTC. A Type II (est. 410 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, along with a tenflare (150 sfu), were observed with the event. Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if a CME with an Earth-directed component was produced. The region was also the source for another event of interest from a C4 flare at 18/2240 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near the flare site. This event also requires additional coronagraph imagery to determine if a CME with an Earth-directed component was produced. The region was in decay over the past 24 hours.

Analysis and modeling of the CME observed in LASCO C2 shortly after 18/1100 UTC suggested the bulk of the ejecta headed south of Earths orbit. A possibility of the periphery of the CME interacting with Earth exists for late on 20 Aug and into 21 Aug.

Region 3082 (N23E22, Dao/beta), Region 3081 (N16W32, Cao/beta), 3083 (S24E64, Bxo/beta), and Region 3084 (S11E08, Cro/beta) were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Region of emerging flux were observed south of Region 3084 and south of Region 3082.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts) on 19-21 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with CME/HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with a slight chance of crossing alert thresholds on 19-21 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS and possible waning influence from an embedded transient. Total magnetic field strength steadily decline from a peak of 11 nT early in the period to ~5nT by the periods end. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 550-600 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CME influences on 19-20 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the arrival of the 16-17 Aug CMEs. Analysis and modeling of CME events from 18-19 Aug is ongoing.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels before reaching G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming late on 18 Aug.

Forecast: Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with continuing effects from the 14-15 Aug CMEs, are expected to increase the potential for G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 19 Aug. On 20 Aug, active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely as additional CME influence is likely. Active conditions are likely for 21 Aug as activity wanes.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation