[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3078 (S17W66, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to produce the majority of flare activity, the largest of which was a C6/1n at 19/2031 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed during the event. Subsequent coronagraph imagery showed a weak and narrow CME that did not appear to have an Earth-directed component. Significant decay was observed throughout the region in the past 24 hours.

All remaining spotted regions on the Sun were in gradual decay.

Two CMEs from around 18/2240 UTC and 19/0444 UTC were analyzed and modeled. The results indicated most of the ejecta would pass upstream of Earths orbit but the periphery of the ejecta may be observed at Earth around 22 Aug. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on 20-22 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with CME/HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 20-22 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS combined with CME effects. The arrival of the CME increased was marked by a small shock in the IMF after 19/1702UTC. Total magnetic field strength from increased from 5 nT to 12 nT during that time. Solar wind speeds increased from ~550 km/s to a peak of ~685km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector before transitioning to variable after the onset of the CME.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CME influences on 20-22 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-19 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels before reaching G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming late on 19 Aug.

Forecast: Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with effects from multiple CMEs that left the Sun over 16-19 Aug, are expected to increase the potential for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20-22 Aug.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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