[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3081 (N16W60, Hax/alpha) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf at 21/0459 UTC. Only minor changes were observed around the leader spot over the past 24 hours. Region 3078 (S24W79, Dso/beta) was difficult to analyze due to its proximity to the W limb, but a significant decrease in activity in the corona near the region was noted. The remaining spotted regions were relatively simple and did not produce any significant X-ray activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on 21 Aug as Region 3078 rotates around the W limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels due elevated solar wind speeds. A peak flux of 1,742 pfu was observed at 20/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 21-23 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS coupled with transient effects. Total magnetic field strength increased from ~5nT to 7-9 nT beginning after 20/1720 UTC. Bz reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~475 km/s to ~525-600 km/s over the same period before settling around ~550 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CME influences on 21-22 Aug as additional transient effects are anticipated with the arrival of multiple CMEs from 18-19 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS influence coupled with CME effects. A weak sudden impulse of between 8-14 nT was observed at daylight magnetometer stations.

Forecast: Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with effects from multiple CMEs that left the Sun over 18-19 Aug, are expected to increase the potential for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21-22 Aug. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Aug as CH HSS effects gradually wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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