[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C2 flare at 21/1814 UTC from around the SW limb. Region 3085 (N29E09, Dao/beta) continued to developed and produced several low-level C-class flares through the period. The remaining spotted regions were either stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 22-24 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels due to elevated solar wind speeds. A peak flux of 3,322 pfu was observed at 21/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over 22-24 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over the same period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested continued enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 6-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady between 550-600 km/s. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CH HSS influences on 22-23 Aug. Additional transient effects are possible over 22 Aug due to CME activity from 18-19 Aug. 24 Aug will likely see a gradual return to background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with possible effects from CME activity on the Sun over 18-19 Aug, are expected to increase the potential for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 22 Aug. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Aug as CH HSS effects gradually wane with quiet to unsettled levels anticipated by 24 Aug.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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