[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3085 (N30W05, Dso/beta) produced a C5/sf flare at 22/1409 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. Region 3082 (N29W30) decayed to plage. Region 3081 (N13W85, Hax/alpha) was also in slow decay. New Region 3086 (S22E52, Dso/beta) was numbered and contributed a couple of C1 flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 23-25 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with elevated solar wind speeds. A peak flux of 3,820 pfu was observed at 22/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over 23-25 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to near background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 6-7 nT and its Bz component did not undergo significant southward deviations. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased throughout the day from around 550 km/s to near 475 km/s. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect waning CH HSS influences on 23-24 Aug. A return to background conditions is expected by 25 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 23-24 Aug as CH HSS effects abate. Mostly quiet levels are anticipated by 25 Aug with a return to nominal, background conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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