[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate with M-class flares and several C-class flares from Region 3088 (S26W51, Dai/beta) and Region 3089 (S24E50, Dsi/beta). Region 3089 contributed the largest flare, an M2.1 at 26/1055 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3090 (N14E54, Axx/alpha) was unremarkable, as were the remaining numbered regions. There was CME activity noted in coronagraph imagery off the WSW limb starting at 26/0712 UTC-likely associated with C-class flares from Region 3088. Due to the source location, no Earth-directed component is expected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a lower probability, but still slight chance of an X-class flare (R3; Strong or higher) 26-28 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels through 28 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged ~6 nT and its Bz component was mostly in a positive orientation. Solar wind speeds were steady at ~350 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Mostly nominal, background conditions are expected 26 Aug. Minor enhancements to the solar wind are possible on 27-28 Aug with +CH influences possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are forecast through 26 Aug with background solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels are possible on 27-28 Aug with possible +CH influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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