[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 3089 (S22E38, Dai/beta) was seen developing rapidly early in the period when an M7/1b flare at 26/1214 UTC and an M5 flare at 26/1231 UTC were observed. Region 3089 Region 3088 (S26W64, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an M4/Sf flare at 27/0240 UTC with Type-II and IV radio emissions, and an M1 flare at 27/1138 UTC. Region 3088 continued to grow in area throughout the period.

A CME associated with the M4 flare at 27/0240 from Region 3088 was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west at 27/0224 UTC. Model output suggests a glancing blow is possible late 28 Aug/early 29 Aug.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high over 27-29 Aug with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced beginning at 27/0600 UTC following west limb flare activity, and exceeded 10 pfu at 27/1200 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,600 pfu observed at 26/1810 UTC. Forecast: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to once again exceed 10 pfu over 27-29 Aug due to the flare potential and location of Region 3088. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 27-28 Aug, then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 29 Aug following increased geomagnetic field activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was nominal until around 27/0300 UTC when a gradual enhancement in density values began, followed by an increase in total field strength values and southward Bz beginning around 27/0800 UTC. Wind speeds remained between 300-375 km/s.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become further enhanced over 27-29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the glancing blow arrival of the 27 Aug CME late on 28 Aug/early on 29 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected on 27 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Periods of minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely late on 28 Aug/early on 29 Aug due to the anticipated glancing blow arrival of the 27 Aug CME, in addition to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influence.

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