[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate this period. Region 3088 (S25W78, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced three M1 flares at 27/1525 UTC, 1558 UTC, and 28/0134 UTC. Region 3088 appeared to be in decay as it began to rotate out of view near the SW limb. Region 3089 (S23E26, Dki/beta) was mostly quiet this period but showed growth in its trailer spot area. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate on 28 Aug with M-class flare activity likely and a chance for X-class flares. There is a decreasing chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares over 29-30 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded minor storm thresholds beginning at 27/1155 UTC through 27/2145 UTC, with a peak flux of 27 pfu observed at 27/1220 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,760 pfu observed at 27/1315 UTC.

Forecast: There is a chance for an additional 10 MeV proton flux enhancement at or above minor storm levels on 28 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at near-background levels on 29-30 Aug. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 28-30 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced under CH HSS influence this period. Total field strength reached 14 nT early in the period and Bz briefly reached -8/-10 nT at points throughout the day. Solar wind speeds increased from initial values between 350-400 km/s to a peak of around 520 km/s observed at 28/0740 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become further enhanced late on 28 Aug/early on 29 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 27 Aug, in addition to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under CH HSS influence this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor storm levels on 28-29 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 27 Aug, combined with continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 30 Aug due to CH HSS influence.

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