[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Aug 29 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Aug 29 0154 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 August 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels on 22-24 Aug with a majority of the flare activity originating from Region 3085 (S24, L=041, class/area Dko/280 on 25 Aug). Activity levels picked up on 25 Aug with weak M-class (R1-Minor) activity recorded from Regions 3088 (S27, L=300, class/area Dkc/650 on 27 Aug) and 3089 (S23, L=196, class/area Eki/320 on 27 Aug). A further increase in activity was observed on 26 Aug with moderate flaring (R2-Moderate) from Region 3089 in the form of an M7.2/1b flare at 26/1214 UTC.

27 Aug saw 4 M-class flares from Reg 3088, the largest an M4.8/Sf at 27/0240 UTC with associated Type II (657 km/s) and Type IV Sweeps and a 130 sfu 10cm Burst. R2-Moderate flare activity was then observed on 28 Aug in the form of an M6.7/Sf at 28/1619 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type IV Sweep and a 1800 sfu 10cm Burst. Throughout the later half of the highlight period, a variety of CMEs were seen lifting off the SW limb as observed in LASCO and STEREO coronagraph imagery. Initial analysis and model output all suggested weak glancing blow effects, if any, on 28-29 Aug.

The greater than 10 MeV at 10 pfu protons reached event levels (S1-Minor) this period as a result of a long duration M1.2/Sn flare from Rgn 3088 observed at 27/1138 UTC. The proton event started at 27/1155 UTC, peaked at 27/1220 UTC (27.5 pfu) and ended at 27/2145 UTC. Proton background levels remained elevated at the the end of the highlight period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 22-27 Aug with a maximum flux reading of 4,360 pfu at 23/1455 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 28 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through midday on 27 Aug under a nominal wind environment. Unsettled to active levels were observed from midday on the 27th through midday on the 28th due to an enhanced total field to 10 nT and increased wind speeds to about 500 km/s, all due to a weak negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 24 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly very low to low levels, with a chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity, through 05 Sep after Rgn 3089 departs, and again from 11-24 Sep due to the return of old Rgns 3088 and 3089. Mostly very low to low flare activity is expected on 06-10 Sep.

The is a slight chance for a proton event on 29 Aug and from 11-24 Sep after the return of old Rgn 3088.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 31 Aug - 02 Sep, 05-12 Sep and 15-18 Sep due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach (G1-Minor) storm conditions on 29 Aug due to potential CME influence and on 05 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active periods are expected on 30-31 Aug, 04-10 Sep, 13-17 Sep and 24 Sep due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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