[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high. Region 3088 (S27, L=301) produced an impulsive M8 flare at 29/1108 UTC and a long-duration M6/Sf flare at 28/1619 UTC, which were the largest events of the period. In addition, Region 3088 produced an M4 flare at 28/1832 UTC and an M3/Sf flare at 29/0338 UTC, all from beyond the W limb. Region 3089 (S22E13, Ekc/beta-gamma) grew in size and complexity throughout the period, but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate on 29 Aug with M-flares likely and a chance for X-flares. There is a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares on 30-31 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels this period, but did not exceed event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate.

Forecast: There is a chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeds event thresholds on 29 Aug due to W limb flare activity. No proton events are expected on 30-31 Aug. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29-30 Aug, and high levels on 31 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A CME signature was observed in solar wind data beginning at 29/0255 UTC. IMF field strength and direction became enhanced and turbulent following the arrival of the weak shock. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of around 520 km/s at 29/1006 UTC.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 29-31 Aug due to a combination of CME effects and CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period under weak CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor storm levels on 29 Aug, and active levels on 30 Aug, due to CME effects and CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Aug under CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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