[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high. Region 3088 (S27, L=301) an M4 flare at 29/1857 UTC and multiple other low level M-class flares and C-class flares. A type II radio sweep was observed at 29/1655 UTC, and a new type IV sweep at 29/1701. A tenflare radio burst was reported by the Palahua RSTN site, beginning at 29/1654 with a peak of 1000 sfu, reported at 29/1658 UTC. All of the M flare activity appears to be mostly from Region 3088, well beyond the west limb. Region 3089 (S22W01, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) grew in size and complexity throughout the period, but remained quiet.

An eruptive CME appears in LASCO following the M2 flare at around 29/1630 UTC. This event is from well around the West limb and was determined unlikely to have any Earthward component. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on 30 Aug with a chance for M-flares and a lesser chance for X-flares. There is a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares on 31 Aug and 01 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels this period, but did not exceed event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate.

Forecast: There is a slight chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeds event thresholds on 29 Aug due to flare activity beyond the W limb from Region 3088 (S27, L=301). No proton events are expected on 31 Aug or 01 Sep. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30-31 Aug, and high levels on 01 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: An enhanced solar wind persisted through the period due to combined negative polarity CH HSS and possible CME influences. Total field trength was elevated to 11 nT, while Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased to near 600 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 30-31 Aug due to a combination of CME effects and CH HSS influence. Ambient quiet conditions are forecast for 01 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period under CH HSS/CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 30 Aug, due to CME effects and CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Aug under CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are forecast for 01 Sep.

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