[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S22W40, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the bulk of this periods C-class flare activity, and exhibited rapid growth in its intermediate spot area. Region 3092 (S09E60, Cao/beta) developed slightly overnight and new Region 3093 (S26E50, Cro/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over 02-04 Sep, with a chance for M-class flare and a slight chance for X-flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 02-04 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event over 02-04 Sep due to the location and flare potential of Region 3089.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influence followed by a solar sector boundary crossing event that began at around 02/0615 UTC.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected over 02-04 Sep due to the influence of recurrent positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 02 Sep. Active conditions are likely on 03 Sep, and G1-G2 storms are likely on 04 Sep, due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS.

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