[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 03 1250 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 03 1250 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. C-class flares were registered from each numbered active region. Region 3089 (S22W53, Ekc/beta-gamma) began to show signs of decay this period with a decrease in total area and spot count. The remaining regions were mostly stable throughout the day. A filament eruption near S22E30 was observed in SDO/193 imagery beginning at 02/1845 UTC. Additional analysis of this event is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over 03-05 Sep, with a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 03-04 Sep, with high flux levels likely on 05 Sep. There is a slight chance for minor solar radiation storms over 03-05 Sep due to the flare potential and location of Region 3089.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced this period due to what appears to be CIR preceding CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached 12 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward at points throughout the period. Solar wind speeds increased after 03/0500 UTC from around 400-450 km/s to a peak of 582 km/s observed at 03/1003 UTC. The phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 03-05 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels this period due to an enhanced solar wind environment.

Forecast: Minor storm conditions are expected on 03 and 05 Sep, with moderate storms likely on 04 Sep, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

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