[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Sep 05 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Sep 05 0159 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. High activity levels were observed on 29 Aug when Region 3088 (S27, L=300, class/area Dkc/650 on 27 Aug) produced an M8.6 x-ray event at 29/1108 UTC. During the 29th, the region produced three additional M-class events including an M2.5 at 29/1456 UTC with an associated Type II (286 km/s), a Type IV Sweep and a 1000 sfu Tenflare. Moderate levels were observed on 30 Aug with a pair of small M-class events observed from Rgn 3088, including a long duration (LDE) M2.1 at 30/1929 UTC. A weak Type II (332 km/s) Sweep was observed with a C5.4 event at 30/1720 UTC.

Low activity levels were observed on 31 Aug - 04 Sep with numerous (43) C-class flares observed from Rgn 3089 (S23, L=195, class/area Ekc/520 on 04 Sep). Additional C-class activity was observed from Rgns 3092 (S09, L=095, class/area Cao/170 on 02 Sep), 3093 (S27, L=105, class/area Cro/030 on 04 Sep) and 3094 (N20, L=069, class/area Cao/100 on 02 Sep). Some weak CME activity was observed off the SW limb on 02 Sep that was analyzed as having a potential, weak Earth-directed component for 06 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A weak enhancement to 0.88 pfu was observed at 30/0210 UTC associated with W limb M-class activity from Rgn 3088.

The GOES-16 greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 29 Aug - 03 Sep and reached high levels on 04 Sep with a peak flux of 6,689 pfu observed at 04/1625 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 29 Aug - 02 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS influence coupled with SW limb CME effects on 29-30 Aug. By 03 Sep, and through 04 Sep, a large equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Steady Minor to Major geomagnetic storm activity was observed through both days. Total field values of 12 nT coupled with steady -12 nT Bz values were observed on the 3rd and 4th. Wind speeds reached maximum speeds of near 685 km/s through most of 04 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 September - 01 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 10 Sep. From 11 - 25 Sep, a chance for R1-R2, (Minor-Moderate) flare activity exists as previously active regions return to the visible disk. A return to very low levels is expected from 26 Sep - 01 Oct.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit from 05 - 10 Sep and 26 Sep - 01 Oct. There is a slight chance for a proton event from 11 Sep - 01 Oct.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 05 - 11 Sep, 15 - 19 Sep, 25 - 28 Sep and 01 Oct due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Sep and 01 Oct due to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 06 - 11 Sep, 13 - 17 Sep and 23 - 30 Sep due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

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