[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S23W81, Ekc/beta-gamma) was once again the most active region on the disk and produced the bulk of this periods C-class flare activity. Region 3089 appeared to be in decay as it approached the west limb. New Region 3095 (S14W37/Bxo-beta) was numbered this period. The remaining regions with sunspots were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares on 06 Sep. Very low solar activity with a chance for C-flares is expected on 06-07 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,690 pfu observed at 04/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 Sep. There is a slight chance for minor radiation storms on 05 Sep, with background levels expected to prevail over 06-07 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated sustained CH HSS influence this period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from around 650-700 km/s early in the period to between 550-600 km/s. Total field strength reached 10 nT early in the period and the Bz component was sustained southward at around -6/-8 nT between 04/1315-1515 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced, but gradually weaken, over 05-07 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from active to moderate storm levels this period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Minor storm conditions are expected, and moderate storms are likely, on 05 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from 02 Sep. Active conditions are expected on 06-07 Sep under waning CH HSS influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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