[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3089 (S23W94, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M-class (R1-Minor) flare at 05/1805 UTC, the strongest of the period. However, as the period progressed, the region rotated just beyond the west limb. Regions 3094 (N21E34, Dso/beta) and 3095 (S14W51, Axx/alpha) underwent some decay. Region 3092 (S10E07, Hsx/alpha) was stable and Region 3093 (S27W02, Bxo/beta) was in gradual decay. New NOAA/SWPC Region 3096 (N18E69, Cso/beta) was assigned this period. A few additional areas with potential spots developed or rotated into view later in the period, but we await USAF observatory corroborative spot reports before assignment as new regions. An approximately 9 degree long DSF was reported by a USAF solar observatory from about S30E50. An associated narrow CME was first clearly observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 06/0125 UTC. However the CME appeared to be on a vector behind Earths orbit and initial model analysis also suggested no Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong) on 06 Sep. Very low solar activity, with a chance for C-flares, is expected on 07-08 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,250 pfu observed at 05/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 06-08 Sep. There is a slight chance for minor radiation storms on 06 Sep, with background levels expected over 07-08 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds ranged primarily from ~530 km/s early in the day to peak near 615 km/s Total magnetic field strength was between 5-8 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south as -7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, with a gradual trend towards background levels 06-08 Sep as CH HSS influences wane. ---------------------- Page Break ----------------------

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to decrease in overall activity as CH HSS influence wanes over the next three days. 06 Sep is expected to observe active levels with a chance for G1 conditions. Unsettled to active levels, with a slight chance G1 conditions, are anticipated for 07 Sep. By 08 Sep, only quiet to unsettled conditions are likely as influence from the CH HSS wanes.

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