[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3092 (S10W07, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and Region 3093 (S27W16, Axx/alpha) nearly decayed to plage. Region 3094 (N19E21, Cro/beta) decayed further. Region 3096 (N18E65, Dsi/beta) matured, as it developed bipolar penumbra. New NOAA/SWPC Region 3097 (S11E09, Cro/beta) was assigned to a newly emerged, yet inactive region. An impulsive C3 flare was observed at GOES at 06/1833 from around the West limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a continuing chance for C-flares 07-09 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, seeing a peak level of 7271 pfu at 06/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to maintain high levels on 07-09 Sep. 10 MeV protons observed at GOES are anticipated to be at background ambient conditions 07-09 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds mainly averaged from 550-575 km/s most of the period. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-6 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, with a gradual trend towards background levels, on 07-09 Sep as CH HSS influences gradually wane. ---------------------- Page Break ----------------------

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to decrease in overall activity as CH HSS influence wanes over the next three days. Unsettled to active levels, with a slight chance G1 conditions, are anticipated for 07 Sep. For 08-09 Sep, only quiet to unsettled conditions are likely as influence from the CH HSS wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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