[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels, with the background flux at C-class levels. Region 3098 (N18W59, Ehc/beta-gamma) remained the largest active region on the visible disk. Its mixed magnetic field appeared to diminish and mostly C-class activity was observed, however, it produced a slow rising M1 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) that peaked at 14/1019 UTC. Region 3102 (S27E55, Dho/beta) was the source of some C-class enhancements as well. The remaining active regions were stable or in gradual decay. No new Earth-directed CME signatures were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mainly at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 14-16 Sep due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3098 and Region 3102.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced and was trending towards background levels, but underwent a slight re-enhancement beginning near 14/0100 UTC and peaked at 2.9 pfu as of this report.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels 14-16 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards routine, background ambient conditions on 14-15 Sep, with a return to standard background by 16 Sep. There remains however, a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) event due to the solar particle event probabilities of Regions 3098 and 3102.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were mostly indicative of ambient, background conditions associated with a slow regime, however, at 14/0623 UTC, a disturbance and enhancement in the IMF was noted. Total IMF strength had decreased to 1-3 nT before the enhancement, but increased to 11 nT by 14/0906 UTC. The Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations, with a brief deviation to -5 nT after the aforementioned disturbance. Solar wind speed had decreased to near 290 km/s, but increased slightly to ~325 km/s. The phi angle was positive until 14/0041 UTC when it shifted into a negative sector and deviated back into a positive orientation by 14/0842 UTC.

Forecast: The mild disturbance in the IMF may continue, but weaken, the remainder of 14 Sep. Ambient conditions are likely on 15 Sep. An isolated, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance the IMF with CIR arrival and elevate solar wind speed with HSS onset on 16 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Despite the solar wind disturbance, the geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet 14-15 Sep. 16 Sep may see active conditions in response to CIR arrival and CH HSS effects.

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