[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an impulsive M1 flare at 12/2344 UTC from Region 3098 (N18W43, Ehc/beta-gamma). An associated 10cm radio burst (400 sfu) was observed from 12/2344-2345 UTC. This region exhibited growth over the past 24 hours as it increased in spot population, overall area, and magnetic complexity. It was also the source region for several mid-level C-flares throughout the period. Region 3101 (N28W89, Dso/beta-gamma) appeared to grow as it rotated to the limb. New NOAA/SWPC Region 3102 (S28E67, Hax/alpha) was assigned this period to a region that rotated into view. This region was too foreshortened for a better analysis, but it was the source C-class flares. The remaining active regions were either stable or in gradual decay. No new Earth-directed CME signatures were identified.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mainly at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event 13-15 Sep due primarily to the flare probabilities of Region 3098 and newly assigned Region 3102.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated to 6.75 pfu observed at 12/1345 UTC, due to activity on the Suns far side on 08 Sep. The mildly enhanced proton flux decreased as the period progressed.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels 13-15 Sep. During the same period, a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is possible due to continued, mildly elevated proton flux levels coupled with the favorable location of Region 3098.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to more ambient, background like conditions. Total IMF strength was primarily 4-6 nT and the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased to ~325 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected continue in an ambient state, with mild disturbances likely 13-15 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled levels 13-15 Sep in response to mild disturbances and enhancements in the solar wind field.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation