[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3098 (N18W29, Eai/beta-gamma) produced several similarly sized C-flares, a C6/Sf flare at 11/2228 UTC being the strongest of the period. The region exhibited significant development over the past 24 areas, growing in number of spots, overall area and magnetic complexity. Minor development was observed in Region 3100 (S25E30, Cai/beta) and Region 3101 (N29W78, Dai/beta). The remaining active regions were either stable or in gradual decay.

An approximate 14 degree filament structure lifted off near center disk at 10/1929 UTC. No subsequent CME signature was identified in available coronagraph imagery. Also noted was additional coronal dimming observed in GOES SUVI 193 imagery, south of Region 3098, beginning after 11/1230 UTC. No other potentially Earth-directed CME signatures were identified.

Forecast: For the period 12-14 Sep, solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, due to the complexity of Region 3098 and the return of old active Region 3088 (S27, L=300).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 21,637 pfu observed at 11/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated to 6.45 pfu observed at 12/1145 UTC, due to activity on the Suns far side on 08 Sep.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels over 12-14 Sep. During the same period, a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event is possible due to continued elevated proton flux levels coupled with the return of old Region 3088.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-7 nT while the Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decayed through the period from ~500 km/s to near 385 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to trend at near background levels on 12 Sep. Weak negative polarity CH HSS influence is likely on 13-14 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to weak, positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels on 12 Sep. An increase to unsettled conditions are likely on 13-14 Sep due to weak negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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