[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Sep 12 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Sep 12 0610 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 September 2022

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels over the period. Moderate levels were observed on 05 Sep due to an M1 (R1-Minor) flare at 05/1805 UTC from Region 3089 (S22, L=194, class/area Ekc/580 on 29 Aug). Region 3089 produced a total of 69 C-class flares and 5 M-class flares during its transit on the visible disk between 25 Aug and 05 Sep. This region was responsible for the majority of the C-class flaring on the first two days of the period (05-06 Sep). Low levels were observed during the rest of the period with C-flare activity mostly from Regions 3096 (N16, L=023, class/area Dso/130 on 08 Sep), 3098 (N18, L=051, class/area Eai/160 on 11 Sep), and 3100 (S25, L=352, class/area Cai/080 on 11 Sep). Beginning on 11 Sep, Region 3098 grew moderately and developed a BG magnetic structure. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

A slight increase in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed beginning late on 09 Sep possibly due to a far sided event on 08 Sep. However, flux levels never exceed 1.5 pfu.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period (05-11 Sep) due to CH HSS influence with a peak flux of 22,600 pfu observed at 08/1815 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The period began under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 668 km/s at 05/0045 UTC and decreased to around 500-570 km/s on 06-09 Sep. A further decrease in speed to 400-500 km/s came on 10-11 Sep. Total field ranged from 5-8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Sep, reached active levels on 06-09 Sep, and finished with quiet to unsettled levels on 10-11 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 September - 08 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 12-17 Sep, due primarily to flare potential from Region 3098 and the return of old Region 3088 (S27, L=300). On 18 Sep - 01 Oct, solar activity is expected to increase to low levels, with a chance for M-flares, due to the return of old Region 3089. Very low to low levels are expected to return on 02-08 Oct.

A slight chance exists for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 12-25 Sep due to the return of old Region 3088 which produced an S1 proton event on 27 Aug.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12-17 Sep, 20-23 Sep, and 26 Sep - 08 Oct due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 13-18 Sep, 23 Sep - 08 Oct, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 17 Sep, 30 Sep - 03 Oct, and G2 (Moderate levels likely on 01 Oct, due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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