[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3098 (N18W16, Eai/beta) produced the largest event of the period, a C4.7/Sf at 11/1033 UTC. This region, along with Regions 3098 (N18W16, Eai/beta), 3101 (N29W64, Dao/beta) and newly numbered Region exhibited minor development. Region 3096 (N16E12, Dao/beta) was in gradual decay. The remaining numbered regions were mostly stable.

A slow-moving CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery off the SE limb beginning at about 10/0448 UTC. Modeling of the CME suggested the ejecta would move south Earths orbit.

An approximate 14 degree filament structure lifted off near center disk at 10/1929 UTC. Analysis of a potential CME is pending as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over 11-13 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 15,503 pfu observed at 10/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at slightly enhanced levels at 1.34 pfu observed at 10/1510 UTC due to an event on the far side of the Sun during 08 Sep.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels over 11-13 Sep. The 10 MeV protons observed at GOES are expected to remain at or near background levels over 11-13 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested continued, low-level, positive polarity CH HSS effects. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-7 nT. Solar wind speeds generally meandered between ~425-500 km/s Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Continued minor enhancements in the solar wind environment may continue over 11 Sep. Mostly background conditions are likely on 12 Sep. Minor negative polarity CH HSS influence is again likely on 13 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Sep. Quiet conditions are likely on 12 Sep. An increase to unsettled conditions are again likely on 13 Sep due to weak negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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