[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3098 (N18W97, Ehc/beta-gamma) produced two M-class X-ray events, an M7.9 (R2-Moderate) flare at 16/0949 UTC and an M6.2/Sn (R2-Moderate) flare at 16/1559 UTC. Both flares were impulsive and no subsequent CME signatures were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Activity in the corona observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery from the SW quadrant was suggestive of an eruptive event. An associated CME was identified in subsequent coronagraph imagery which first appeared in SOHO LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 16/0200 UTC. Modeling of the ejecta suggested the CME would pass upstream of Earths orbit. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 17-19 Sep, with a continuing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. A slight chance for R3 (Strong) Radio blackouts exists for 17 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels, but is anticipated to return to high levels on 18 Sep in response to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background conditions over 17 Sep. There remains, however, a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) event on 17 Sep due to the solar particle event probabilities of Region 3098.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected diminishing transient influence. Total field strength was between 5-8 nT. The Bz component was primarily oriented northward. Solar wind speeds were between ~315-370 km/s.

Forecast: A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 17 Sep, enhancing solar wind parameters on 17-19 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, on 17 Sep in response to a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 18-19 Sep.

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