[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. The strongest event of the period was an M2.3 flare (R1-Minor) that was observed at 17/2041 UTC from the vicinity of old Region 3098 (N18, L=053) which just rotated around the NW limb. Development was observed in the intermediate and trailer spots of both Regions 3100 (S23W42, Eso/beta) and 3102 (S27E11, Eki/beta). Region 3103 (S16W22, Bxo/beta) was in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 18-20 Sep, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background conditions over the next several days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected enhancements likely associated with a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. Bt steadily increased from near 6nT to a peak of 12 nT late in the period. Bz was variable and a couple of sustained southward deflections were observed. Solar wind speeds increased from near 350 km/s early in the period to ~450 km/s by periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: A negative polarity coronal hole remains in a position thats favorable to influence Earths near-space environment and will continue to be for the next several days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, on 18 Sep due to influence from a CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 19 Sep. 20 Sep will be mostly quiet under ambient solar wind conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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