[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Sep 19 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Sep 19 0622 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 September 2022

Solar activity reached high levels this week, with six M-class flares observed during the period. Region 3098 (N18, L=053, class/area Ehc/860 on 14 Sep) produced the largest event, an M7.9 flare at 16/0949 UTC. This was followed at 16/1559 UTC by an M6.2/Sn flare from the same region. The remaining M flares, all associated with Region 3098, ranged from M1.1 to M2.6. Of the 11 regions numbered, Region 3098 was the largest, most magnetically complex, and most productive. It was responsible for 39 C-class flares in addition to the M-flares described above. Throughout the week there were several CMEs but none were Earth-directed.

No proton events meeting alert criteria were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels, mostly likely in response to an event on the far side of the sun.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was elevated at the beginning of the week but subsquently fell below the 1000 pfu threshold after the arrival of a transient feature on the 14th described below. It remained at normal-moderate levels for the remainder of the week.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The active conditions were observed on the synoptic periods straddling 14-15 Sept and associated with influences from an unattributed transient feature. The disturbed conditions were preceded by a 30 nT sudden impulse observed at 2315 UTC (Boulder Magnetometer) on September 14th. An extended quiet period followed until 18 September when conditions rose to unsettled levels in response to coronal hole high speed stream influences. Solar wind speed in this coronal hole reached the mid 500 km/s range.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 September - 15 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 19 Sep - 02 Oct as old Region 3089 (S22, L=194) returns. This region was previously responsible for 5 M-class events and continues to be active based on imagery of the SE limb. Region 3098 is expected to return around 29 September, bringing the potential for a continued chance of M-class flare activity through the end of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-23 September and 01-11 October in response to CH HSS influences.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor (G1) storm levels on the 22-23 Sep with the arrival of a HSS associated with a positive polarity coronal hole. Another positive polarity coronal hole and HSS are expected to bring minor (G1) to moderate (G2) storm conditions on 30 Sep - 03 Oct.

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