[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The majority of the C-class activity was produced by Region 3102 (S26W06, Eki/beta) and a Region just rotating onto the SE limb near S18. This is likely the return of old Region 3089 (S22, L=194). The largest flare was a C7/1f at 19/0230 UTC. Region 3100 (S24W63, Cso/beta) also produced a C3 flare at 18/1816 UTC which was associated with a CME off the SW limb beginning at 18/1800 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Subsequent modelling of the CME showed no Earth-directed component.

Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 3100 and 3102. New spot emergence was observed N of Region 3100 and was numbered Region 3104 (S11W58, Bxo/beta).

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 19-21 Sep due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3102 and the unnumbered region rotating onto the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced near 1 pfu but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold of 10 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background levels over the next several days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 450 km/s to 550 km/s by 18/2013 UTC and diminished to near 450 km/s by 19/0600 UTC. Total field ranged from 5-11 nT while the Bz component was between +9/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A negative polarity coronal hole remains in a position thats favorable to influence Earths near-space environment over 19 Sep. A return to near background solar wind conditions are likely over 20-21 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 19 Sep due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. 20-21 Sep will be mostly quiet as solar wind conditions trend near background levels.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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