[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following an isolated M1/1n flare, the largest of the period, at 20/1122 UTC from Region 3102 (S25W20, Eko/beta). The region continued to show consolidation in the southern portion of the trailer spots. Region 3100 (S22W20, Hax/alpha) began to simplify and consolidate as it rotated around the western limb. Newly numbered Region 3104 (S11, L=350) decayed back to plage. Region 3105 (S16E63, Dao/beta-gamma) continued to rotate into view, showing more spots and added complexity. This new spot group is likely the return of old Region 3089 (S23, L=197). No Earth-directed CMEs are anticipated.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 20-22 Sep. The chance for elevated activity is due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3102 and 3105.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced near 1 pfu, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold of 10 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background levels over the next several days, barring any significant solar flare activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed peaked near 550 km/s, but averaged closer to 400 km/s to 500 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength steadily declined throughout the period, dropping from 7 nT to ~4 nT, while the Bz continued to fluctuate between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative orientation.

Forecast: Background solar wind conditions are likely to return over 20-21 Sep. By midday on 22 Sep, a possible CIR is anticipated in advance of a large, equatorial CH HSS. As a result, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed under persistent, yet weakening, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 Sep, and mostly quiet on 21 Sep as negative polarity CH HSS influence diminishes. Quiet to isolated active conditions are expected by midday on 22 Sep as a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to move into a geoeffective position.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation