[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels this period. Region 3107 (S25E40, Cao/beta) and Region 3109 (N10W19, Cro/beta) both produced a few C-class flares over the past 24 hours. Both regions exhibited slight area and spot growth. The remaining regions were mostly stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 23-25 Sep. The chance for elevated activity is due primarily to the recent flare history of Regions 3105 and 3107.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold of 10 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels 23-25 Sep due to high speed winds associated with a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background levels over the next several days, barring any significant solar flare activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced. Total field strength varied between 5-10 nT about 22/2100 UTC. The Bz component was mostly north until late in the period when it reached -5 to - 7 nT for a few hours. Solar wind speeds were generally between ~400-450 km/s Phi angle was variable early then settled into more of a predominantly positive orientation in the latter half of the period.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on 23-25 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely on 23 Sep as a CH HSS moves further into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected for 24-25 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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