[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1/Sf flare at 23/1810 UTC from Region 3110 (N16E67, Cao/beta). Associated with the flare were Type II (620 km/s)/IV radio emissions and a CME off the E limb beginning at 23/1812 UTC. Another CME was observed off the SW limb beginning at 24/0712 UTC, however this event appears in SUVI 171 imagery to have a source just beyond the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Slight growth was observed in Region 3110 as well as the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 3107 (S25E34, Eko/beta-gamma). Slight decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 3105 (S16E14, Dki/beta) and 3102 (S27W72, Dao/beta). Regions 3107 and 3110 produced the majority of the C-class flare activity.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 24-26 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 24-26 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced through the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 380-481 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: A later than expected arrival of a trans-equatorial CH HSS is still possible in the latter half of 24 Sep. HSS conditions are expected to continue through 26 Sep, but likely weaker than originally thought.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under a weakly enhanced solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely later on 24 Sep in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to active levels are expected on 25 Sep followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 26 Sep as the HSS slowly wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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